Defend each drop of Nile water with blood

"The only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water"

As once famously said by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1979. Blood will be flowing in the Nile River, not water if conflicts surrounding this precious resource are not resolved peacefully, as put melancholically by Wiebe (2001).

Almost everybody has heard of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that began construction in 2011 and was recently completed in July 2020, yet not many realise that this simple dam is the source of immense conflict. The Nile River has simultaneously been a source of life and conflict for decades, and with the current escalating degradation of the river, water scarcity concerns have been exacerbated within the basin.

"Hail to thee, O Nile! Who manifests thyself over this land, and comes to give life to Egypt!"

(Ancient Egyptian Hymn celebrating the Nile)

The Nile river and Egypt can be considered almost synonymous terms, having prospered greatly from the river and its sediment, creating an iconic civilisation both in the past and present. Although Egypt is the furthest downstream along the Nile basin amongst its riparian counterparts, it still controls the majority of the water with its superior economic and military presence. However, times are rapidly changing and Egypt is no longer the powerhouse it used to be. The rising conflicts and disparity between Egypt and Ethiopia have demonstrated this.

Ethiopia's new dam is set to be the biggest project in Africa and looks to provide Ethiopia with a huge economic boost from electricity and its neighbouring countries. So why should Egypt care about this?

For the first time in history, Egypt's unlimited and unstoppable flow of Nile water is threatened to be cut down drastically when the GERD begins filling up in the coming years. Ethiopia plans to fill it up in seven years, however, this would greatly impact the water flow into Egypt, diminishing agricultural farmland which is vital to the people.

With negotiations between the two countries spanning over 9 years and there being almost no real progress, conflict is imminent. The second phase of filling was completed on 19 July 2021, without consent from Egypt and Sudan, and this process looks to be moving faster than expected (Zane, 2021). After countless failed talks, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia settled on the US and the World Bank to act as external mediators to resolve this matter - sounds familiar, doesn't it? Almost as if the bells of colonial past are ringing again! Alas, these colonial legacies will be untangled in a subsequent blog post.

Recent events have shown that Ethiopia is not very inclined to participate in these new agreements, and is using the dam as a chance to tip the scales of power in the region. Ethiopia accuses Egypt of trying to maintain a colonial-era grip over the Nile waters, and insist that Sudan and Egypt's concerns are taken into account with the filling of the dam, and yet they are reluctant to involve themselves with diplomatic negotiations involving third parties such as the United States and United Nations (Al Jazeera, 2021).

    Internet "meme" picture depicting the Nile River water distribution through a comedic Tom and Jerry scene (2020).

It seems that as time goes by, negotiations become less plausible and tensions become even more hostile, with no winners in this debate. Zane (2021) succinctly puts "for the time being, Ethiopia is isolated, Egypt is cornered, and war is looming" - a gloomy statement yet holds some elements of truth. Will Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia reach an agreement? Will Egypt start a war with Ethiopia? Will there be major intervention from surrounding countries? So many questions yet no answers in sight. I guess time will tell.

What do you think about this? Comment down below!