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Water at its boiling point: The cusp of conflict (Part One)

War? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. - iconic lyrics from the song 'War' by African American soul musician Edwin Starr. Unfortunately, it's not quite the militaristic war that people fear but rather one of aquatic nature. Water wars in Africa is a complex topic, therefore this will be a two-part blog post. This week we will look to break it down into two sections:


  • Why is water leading to conflict?
  • What causes these conflicts to emerge?

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Why is water so important?

'Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil but wars of the coming 21st century will be about water unless we change the way in which we manage it' as put by Ismail Sergalin (2009), the then vice-president of the World Bank. Water is not just a 'commodity' but is a cornerstone of life. Water shortages reduce food production, aggrandize poverty and can reduce the capacity of a state to govern. Agriculture is accountable for over 67% of the earth's total water withdrawal (Swain, 2004). With the rapid development of Africa's population, industry and agriculture, the need for water increases linearly, and thus leads to transboundary conflicts as many of the water sources within the basin are shared (Hayton, 1961). 

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Lake Chad: Instability and crisis in the basin

Looking at a more local scale, the Lake Chad situation represents how water has fuelled an economic crisis for a multitude of countries in the Sahel region. Lake Chad is one of Africa's largest freshwater bodies, providing water for Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon and accommodates over 17.4 million people (Mohanty et al., 2021). For decades, the lake has supported drinking water, irrigation, agriculture and economic activity for the 30 million people in the region however climate change has caused the lake to have shrunk by nearly 90% in the last 60 years, fuelling a crisis in the region like never seen before (Mohanty et al., 2021). 


A soldier stands on the shore of Lake Chad (Arno Trumper, Adelphi)


The Lake Chad basin is one of the most unstable regions in the world, with 4 of the countries in the region being among the 10 least peaceful countries in Africa as ranked by the 2020 Global Terrorism Index report. Boko Haram is the leading insurgent group that operates in the region, and its conflict with the state security forces have caught the people of Lake Chad in a deadly crossfire. With their control of large areas of territory, it makes it difficult for humanitarian workers to reach areas these displaced areas (Mohanty et al., 2021). With scarce water supplies comes a fight over water and land. Stories like this are not unique to the Lake Chad Basin, as evident from the previous blog post  where conflict brewed between control over the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia. 

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What causes these water conflicts?

There are many factors that can lead to water conflicts, some being natural and others man-made. One obvious culprit is climate change, with global warming contributing to the shrinking of water levels in many African countries, leading to increased stress on already scarce water supplies.  Ashton and Seetal (2002) mention that many African countries will exceed the limit of their useable water supplies before 2025 due to their rapidly growing population growth. The geographical nature of African water sources being primarily located within large river basins and underground aquifers only further exacerbate the problem of shared water resources, as multiple sovereign states lay claim to these sources (Ashton, 2002). Ani et al. (2018) state that there are 5 key geopolitical and strategic factors that fuel water-based conflict:

  • The degree to which water scarcity already exists in the region
  • The extent to which the water supply is shared between one or more states
  • The relative power relationships that exist between these states
  • The availability of alternative water sources and their associated accessibility 
  • The extent to which a state's borders align with that of the natural river system
It tends to be that water-based conflicts arise from transboundary arguments over the property of water resources, especially when the geography of the river flows favour one state over the other, however, natural factors like climate change often serve to further intensify these conflicts by putting stress onto the resources itself - as evident from the Lake Chad Basin. Next weeks blog post will look to tackle the implications of these conflicts and scratch the surface surrounding potential solutions to these incredibly complex and fascinating issues.  


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